Dayan Jayatilleka in an article published in
the Colombo Telegraph (How a weak opposition could still play it smart) offers
that the Opposition is actually helping President Mahinda Rajapaksa secure a third
term.
He claims that the Opposition has picked the
wrong slogan, that of ‘constitutional change’ when ‘it has little prospect of acting as a rallying
cry among millions of rural voters’. But
even if the Opposition got the slogan right, it has got the candidate wrong,
Dayan argues. As things stand of course, the stand out
figure among the pretenders is Ranil Wickremesinghe who, according to Dayan and
many others is the weakest of all candidates against the President. Furthermore, Dayan argues that the President
will win against any candidate that the Opposition puts forward, so in and of
itself Wickremesinghe contesting is not an issue.
In this scenario, Dayan advises the Opposition
to use the Presidential Election as a springboard to target ‘the weak link in the chain of regime hegemony,
which is lodged in its real base: the parliament and the two thirds majority’. Ideally, the ruling party would be defeated
and this would stop ‘an oligarchic-securocratic or oligarchic-militaristic Iron
Curtain (descending) upon post-election Sri Lanka, behind which a garrison
state will grow and a dark age will settle’.
That’s Dayan with his usual doom’s day conclusion-flourish.
In an earlier piece
titled ‘The Uva effect and the Presidency,’ written just two weeks ago, Dayan
made a case for the UNP putting forward someone other than Wickremesinghe. He
tossed out two names, Sajith Premadasa and Karu Jayasuriya, and argued the
former’s case. He didn’t claim that
Sajith could win, but that he would help secure moral points in a loss that
narrows the gap between regime and Opposition.
He seems to have shelved Project Sajith (for the moment), but can’t be
blamed for arguing that any momentum gained even in a losing cause at the
Presidential Election could help the Opposition in the Parliamentary Election
that is most likely to be held immediately afterwards.
There are lots of ‘ifs’
in Dayan’s analysis of post-election scenarios.
There are lots of ‘wants’ too. He
would ideally have ‘the main Opposition goes into the parliamentary election
under a new, populist-patriotic leadership which can achieve two things at the
same time: (a) re-profile the Opposition so it looks newer and younger than the
UPFA and (b) neutralize the regime’s monopoly of Sinhala Buddhist nationalism.’
That re-profiling,
according to Dayan, would see the Opposition using the Presidential Election to
raise consciousness and employing ‘Sajith Premadasa, Sujeeva Senasinghe, Harsha
de Silva, Eran Wickremaratne, Rosie Senanayake, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Sunil
Handunetti, Vijitha Herath, Wasantha Samarasinghe, Lal Kantha and Tilvin Silva
in a pincer move’. Ranil Wickremesinghe
and Karu Jayasuriya are left out of the picture. Ravi Karunanayake and much of the UNP’s
‘Leadership Council’ are out too. So
re-profiling would essentially be a Sajith-led affair.
Now ‘newer and younger’
doesn’t guarantee anything. J.R.
Jayewardene was not young in 1977, for example.
As for ‘pincer moves,’ it’s not names that count but the numbers behind
the names. It is not that each JVP
leader mentioned here comes with all the JVP supporters. Together they bring
all -- separately they don’t bring additional numbers. Harsha, Eran and Sujeeva
are intelligent and eloquent but they are all voice-cut politicians. Sajith has great appeal but not only is he
not his father’s son in this respect he is divisive, arrogant, fixated with his
political future and is a puppet of two prominent media moguls.
In a post-Presidential
situation, whatever momentum gained loses to election-fatigue, demoralization,
additional electoral swing towards the winner and the scrambling of coalition. Going
by history, the UNP would be distracted by yet another Unseat-Ranil effort
which, given that the man is far more shrew than people make him out to be and
is backed by a For-Ranil party constitution, would give nothing but take much
from ‘re-profiling’. It would be
optimistic to stake it all on an unlikely reversal.
The solution (a tough
one of course) would be to look for an alternative candidate who doesn’t look
like Sarath Fonseka (a sure ‘loser’ that saves face). Alternatively the Opposition should dig in
for the long(er) haul associated with regime-change. Such a choice would not see anyone getting
too excited about the Presidential or Parliamentary Elections. To the extent that these elections can be
used, it would be about enlarging the Opposition by winning over all
disgruntled elements in the ruling coalition.
Only a right candidate with a right program that addresses all the
antipathies that the majority of Sinhala Buddhist voters have regarding the
UNP’s political positions could do this.
This doesn’t seem to be
happening. Dayan is right in this sense:
taken as a collective (and with a few individual exceptions) Sri Lankan
politics today has the dumbest opposition this country has ever seen.
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