Dayan Jayatilleka in an article titled ‘The Uva effect and
the Presidency’ argues against the UNP fielding Ranil Wickremesinghe as its
presidential candidate in a repeat of the 2005 face-off with Mahinda
Rajapaksa. He has, with the use of a few
important statistics, shot down the notion of a UNP resurgence that some
commentators have seen in the Uva result.
While offering that the UNP does not have anyone who could best
Rajapaksa, Dayan offers that it is possible score moral-points even in a defeat
if the gap is narrowed. In short, Dayan
argues that Ranil will not deliver even this consolation prize.
No one needs to break a sweat to show that Ranil wouldn’t
have much of a chance against Mahinda, but it’s a point that has to be made and
Dayan makes it. He then proceeds to the
more important question: ‘If not Ranil,
then who?’ He proposes two names, Sajith
Premadasa and Karu Jayasuriya, but subtly drops the latter in a concluding
question regarding the second preferential vote (which would come into the
equation should the winner fail to secure 50% + 1 votes). He asks, ‘for example, who can secure the
second preference vote of those who will vote for Anura Kumara – Mahinda, Ranil
or Sajith?’
The arguments offered to support a Sajith Premadasa
candidacy are rather spurious. ‘Youth!’
is one. The gains made by the JVP after
the ‘young’ Anura Kumara became party leader and the impetus that Harin
Fernando gave the UNP in Uva are cited as evidence. Those arrows are easy to draw but outcomes
emerge from the operation of multiple factors not just age of particular
individuals. What works for the JVP does
not necessarily work for the UNP. Harin
is young, but more importantly he showed courage, a sense of sacrifice for the
larger good of the party, innovation and spirit, none of which are the preserve
of the young.
It is, as Dayan says, about the man. To an extent.
He employs the classic mislead – ‘what if?’: what if Maithripala
Senanayake or Vijaya Kumaratunga had taken on J.R. Jayewardena in 1982 instead
of Hector Kobbekaduwa? Well, Senanayake
was 66 at the time (Ranil is 65) and Vijaya, although just 37, had lost Katana
in the UNP landslide of 1977. In 1983 he
was roughed up in Mahara and lost the by-election. This record doesn’t give reasons to get
excited by the what-if proposition.
Dayan makes much of a single observation made by a reporter
in Uva – ‘The crowd went wild when “Punchi Premadasa” arrived’. Well, tagging the young man’s dad might be
construed as evidence of the writer’s outcome preferences, but even if that
weren’t so, it is well known that Sajith moves with a cheering squad. It is also well known that it is two media
houses (one radio/tv and the other newspapers) and not the rank and file of the
UNP that has been inflating Sajith’s image.
They have attacked Ranil Wickremesinghe mercilessly and shown absolute
disregard of all ethics in attacking Karu Jayasuriya. Is the UNP so poor that it has to pick a man
this beholden to people with absolutely no scruples when it comes to media
machinations?
Sajith is not a party unifier. His methods are divisive. He has demonstrated this many times. He fought hard to oust Ranil with Dayasiri Jayasekera,
but at the end of the day ensured that Dayasiri was humiliated without himself
being harmed one bit. When he showed up
in Passara without having lifted one finger to help Harin or the party, he
snubbed Karu Jayasuriya, a man whom he, Sajith, once said should replace
Ranil. He did this even after Karu, who
has every reason to be peeved at Sajith’s underhand moves (with his media
pals), showed much grace in his response to Sajith’s ‘return’.
If it is just about unity, then Karu Jayasuriya is the
man. He is as much or more a nationalist
than Sajith. He has national stature. He
can, for many reasons, attract support from a wider political spectrum. He has a better chance of getting the second
preference vote of those who pick Anura Kumara (let’s not forget that Sajith’s
father presided over the decimation of the JVP in the late eighties).
Dayan is right when he says that Ranil has a lot of
baggage. A Mahinda-Ranil face-off will
beg for a ‘Hero vs Traitor’ poster (and we can trust such a line to be picked
in the down-n-dirty of our political culture) in the way it was not possible in
2010. Neither Sajith nor Karu can be
targeted in that manner, Dayan is right.
But would Dayan say that Sajith has no skeletons in his cupboard? Would he say that Karu has secrets that might
embarrass him?
The UNP is not exactly enjoying a pre-victory party right
now. It is struggling to remain
politically coherent. The last thing it
needs is to be sidetracked by a political red herring. It is easy to pick one particular factor that
makes one particular candidate look good and say ‘He’s the most handsome guy
around,’ but that’s cheap politicking.
Sajith has the age-edge but little else.
Karu has other advantages, but perhaps he has different negatives. Selectivity doesn’t help. If that’s the name of the game, then a cogent
argument can be made for Ranil too.
The UNP needs to be sober.
The party as a whole has to be wary of the praise and blame dished out
by backers of this or that person.
That’s if it doesn’t want the next presidential election to be yet
another cakewalk for Mahinda Rajapaksa.
1 comments:
Run Ranil run; burn UNP burn!
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