After weeks of speculation the Opposition has come up with a
name. A solid one too. Maithripala Sirisena. It’s a name calculated to split the major
partner of the ruling coalition, i.e. the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). Some MPs have already crossed over. Other
defections are on the cards. It is a
time of speculation, of risks and of calculations.
It boils down to ‘winnability’. In an ‘iffy’ situation the risk is naturally
greater. The ruling coalition will not
twiddle thumbs. The initial surprise and
of course dismay will soon shift to closing of ranks, damage control and
eventually counter-punch; the last literally as well, if the antics of a UPFA
strong-man in Kalutara on Friday (immediately after Maithripala announced his
candidacy) are anything to go by.
Already sweet sounding terms such as good governance,
democracy, rule of law, constitutional change, abolishing of the executive
presidency etc., are sounding hollow as people unable to contain individual
ambition talk of ‘high posts’ in a post-Mahinda scenario. Maithripala’s first press conference as
candidate lost a lot of gloss when it became as much a candidacy announcement
as it was a blueprint regarding Ranil Wickremesinghe’s political future (read 'Maithripala: King in Waiting or Ranil's Pawn'). It was also, as Dayan Jayatilleka argues well
in an article titled ‘The Sirisena surge and why Mahinda is still way ahead,’
about Rajitha Senaratne unrolling his political autobiography and Chandrika
Kumaratunga’s ‘prolonged and self-justificatory lamentation’.
Early setbacks notwithstanding the coming weeks will
see intense politicking by both parties and their respective backers because
everyone involved has much to win and a lot of lose. It’s investment time, clearly. The problem is that if you just count
Parliament, there can only be 224 ministers.
People can speculate of course, but people must understand that there
will be hundreds of others who will also be calculating.
It is in this context that it makes sense for
politicians at lower levels (provincial councils for example) to think money
instead of position. The going rate for a provincial councilor is said to have
moved up from Rs 10 million to Rs 25-35 million. Rest assured, those ‘on offer’ will be going
the way of the highest bidder. It goes without
saying that those who are ready to bribe will not be averse to take bribes in
return. This being the case, we can take
the democracy rhetoric out of the equation. It is not about lofty ideas. It’s about personal glory. Perks.
Frills. Tidbits. As has always been the case, one might
add.
Those in power will not let go. Those out of power want it badly. The voter has to choose between such
persons. Track records will come into
play. Personalities too. Friends of each candidate will be looked at
closely. What is promised will be
considered. Gratitude will come into
play. Punishment for wrongs done will
also be factored in. The crimes and
virtues of coalition partners will not be forgotten. There will be talk of devils, known and unknown. Some will weigh the virtues of political
stability against the need to correct flawed structures. ‘Doability’ will be assessed. All this in the coming weeks.
And there will be those who will try to convince,
cajole, trick, intimidate and cheat the voter.
And there will be those who will be suckered into voting for those who
promise the undeliverable, those who auction non-existing resources and those
who promise heaven over hell or heaven over a would-be hell as the case may
be.
It is an exciting time, no doubt. All the more reason to be alert. Politicians, after all, are made of
promises. This is the month of the
voter. Let the voter strive to be a hard
purchase.
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