Tilvin Silva of the JVP made an interesting point at
the commemoration of comrades slain in 1988-89: ‘Mahinda has already run half
the race.’ The constitution favors
incumbent. Authorities turn a blind eye
on the abuse of state resources and indeed the institutional arrangement is so
poor in terms of checks and balances that this is a ‘given’. Citizens have, sadly, resolved to
shoulder-shrug in a ‘par for the course’ sense.
And then there’s the Opposition: broken, confused and running around in
circles. So yes, Tilvin has a point.
Mahinda Rajapaksa has been running for re-election
since January 2010. He had the J R
Jayewardena and Chandrika Kumaratunga presidencies to figure out the fate of a
lame duck incumbent. His decline would
begin on Day 1. He must have started
plotting the 18th Amendment the moment he was re-elected. He had the numbers in Parliament. He got it passed.
There was of course what appeared to be a hiccup in
the form of the former Chief Justice, Sarath N Silva raising the issue of
ineligibility. JVP leader Anura Kumara
Dissanayake referring to this as well as the Supreme Court’s dismissal of the
objection, claims that even a schoolboy would know that the President was
ineligible. This means that for four
years, Anura as well as the JVP had the political maturity of toddlers and
nothing more. After the SC
determination, Silva says ‘nothing can be done now except defeating him in an
election’. It is almost as though he
brought the issue up to ensure that Rajapaksa would not be stumped on
nomination day.
Sections of the Opposition briefly flirted with the
idea of a Chandrika come-back. Ranil
Wickremesinghe is reported to have supported the idea. If this is true it only indicates that he
doesn’t believe he can defeat Rajapaksa.
Dayan Jayatilleka got it right when he said that if anyone can do worse
than Ranil it is Chandrika. She was
President for 11 years and has nothing to show for it. She played hide and seek with the LTTE and came
off second best. She has nothing
concrete to show compared to what Rajapaksa can brag about. Rajapaksa, moreover, presided over a
comprehensive victory over terrorism.
Track records will be compared.
In any case, Silva’s antics have effectively dumped the Chandrika
Candidacy idea in the bin. She can keep
out of things or she can support an Opposition candidate. She would be a liability more than an asset
in the latter case.
Mahinda has things to show. That counts.
It counts more than things that begin with ‘If I am elected…’ He has his liabilities and handicaps but to
make these count the Opposition has to start running, to take from Tilvin’s
observation. Right now, though, while
Mahinda has got off the blocks and is half way towards the finishing line, all
the running that the Opposition seems to be doing is ‘in circles’.
Mahinda has the show-tell advantage. He has the regime-fatigue handicap. He has the incumbency edge, but has to deal
with the fallout of non-deliverability on several issues. Abolishing the executive presidency is a
non-issue for the average voter, but law and order is an in-your-face
matter. He has failed there and he can
thank the thugs and crooks he has indulged or cultivated for this. His coalition has not seemed as solid as it
used to be. There has been audible
grumbling about the ‘Clan mentality of the Rajapaksas’. These haven’t resulted in major cracks. The Opposition, with its own confusion and
fractures, is a hardly attractive place for dissenting voices to relocate. As of now, only the JHU seems uncertain or
supporting him for the third time, but there is no guarantee that a possible
JHU exit would precipitate an exodus that is significant.
The weight of the ‘JHU factor’ will depend on
whether they support someone put forward by the UNP or whether they decide to
contest separately. A JHU candidate
would be a spoiler but it is hard to say who gets spoiled. If Ranil is contesting, the Ranil-Mahinda gap
could be so wide that the JHU would be a non-factor. Such a candidate might get a few disgruntled
votes from both sides. A Karu Jayasuriya
candidacy might succeed in obtaining JHU support. Whether this would translate into victory is
left to be seen.
The Opposition right now appears hell bent on making
most of the above irrelevant. What the
voter is seeing is a bunch of self-serving politicians under-cutting one
another. Sajith Premadasa is playing
spoiler. He knows he can’t defeat Rajapaksa and therefore he doesn’t want
anyone else, particularly Karu Jayasuriya, to have a shot the presidency. He backs Ranil because he is banking on
turning Ranil’s probably defeat into an edge in ousting the man as Party
Leader. Ranil holds the cards: he
decides who will contest. If he feels he
can’t win then he would want to put forward a loser. Karu doesn’t know who to trust. The Opposition’s self-appointed spin-doctors
are not helping by throwing other names into the hat: Arjuna Ranatunga, Chandrika, Ven Maduluwawe
Sobitha Thero and even Maithripala Sirisena of the SLFP (he has since ‘opted
out,’ clearly signaling that the rank and file of the ruling party doesn’t want
to gamble on an iffy Opposition candidate).
The JVP ran with Silva’s objection and is now left
without a slogan. ‘Boycott’ seems to be
the face-saving option, but this might result in further erosion of vote base
in a possible General Election following the probable Presidential Election in
early January.
Tilvin, then, is describing only part of the
unfolding political. Mahinda is not only half way there, the Opposition is
running in the opposite direction.
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