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| Those who love him are not concerned about 'comeback' but 'comeback' is a survival 'must' for those who 'love' him |
A group of essentially one-man parties have organized a
rally. They’ve invited the 5.8 million
who voted for Mahinda Rajapaksa in a losing cause on January 8, 2015 to
attend. They have asked for a show of
force.
Vasudeva Nanayakkara, Dinesh Gunawardena, Wimal Weerawansa
and Udaya Gammanpila are all fiery speakers no doubt, but in terms of political
endowments such as membership, party machinery and vote-getting ability outside
of alignment with a major party, they are impoverished. Today, with all MPs from the Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP) pledging support to President Maithripala Sirisena and
given their long standing antipathy to the United National Party (UNP), they do
not have that political big tree so necessary for them to cling on to if they
want to remain politically relevant.
They clearly need Mahinda Rajapaksa more than Mahinda
Rajapaksa needs them. If one were to
assess their chances at a general election contested as a coalition even under
the present proportional representation system they would be lucky to get two
seats. Even the Janatha Vimukthi
Peramuna (JVP), clinging on to Sarath Fonseka could return only 3 members to
Parliament (down from the 40 they had in 2004).
Ideally, therefore, as far as they are concerned Mahinda
Rajapaksa would lead a coalition and help secure enough votes for them to
squeeze in. Those votes would probably
come from the SLFP and might end up gifting the bonus seats of relevant
districts to the UNP, but it would not help Mahinda’s cause (whatever it may
be) at this point. An all-powerful
executive president who becomes a mere Member of Parliament (one out of 225)
would look dwarfed. Why on earth should
Mahinda wish such an eventuality on himself?
He, more than anyone else, knows the true weight of an MP. ‘Lightweight’ would be an exaggeration.
If Mahinda wants to be politically relevant he must remain
outside the parliamentary equation.
Today, having recovered a part of a persona that was so crucial in
propelling him into the highest political office, the former president is
basking in post-election adoration from those who credit him for putting an end
to terrorism. People are going to
Medamulana in their hundreds on a daily basis.
This is a phenomenon that we did not see when either Chandrika
Kumaratunga or Ranil Wickremesinghe left office. It would be naïve to count all these as
‘sure votes’ or as evidence of a massive demand for him to enter
parliament. However, should he play a
‘distancing game’ such a demand may grow to a politically relevant
magnitude.
He has made the politically astute move of pledging support
to the SLFP and insisting that he will not be part of any moves that cause
division in the party. In short he will
not be a spoiler. He could go
further. He could say for instance that
if he has done wrong then let there be a proper investigation and that if found
guilty be put behind bars. He can then
add, ‘by the way, since this is all about the primacy of the law, let the
principle of equality be applied and all wrongdoing be investigated and all
wrongdoers charged in court’. That
would not only make the many wrongdoers currently enjoying high office as well
as the favor of the government squirm, it would position him strongly for any
future political moves should he be so inclined.
The only way Mahinda Rajapaksa can remain relevant
politically is for him to acknowledge and affirm at every turn that a)
Maithripala Sirisena is not only the President of the country he is his
(Mahinda’s) president as well, and b) Maithripala Sirisena is not only the
leader of the SLFP, he is his (Mahinda’s) leader as well. He could add that just as he did what his
predecessors could not (defeat the LTTE and end the war), his successor is
attempting what he himself could not (constitutional reform), observing that
both men are SLFP stalwarts. This
would not only help the party but would enhance his stature which (he has to
admit) too some severe hits thanks to his own errors.
Those who love Mahinda, then, should encourage him to remain
where he is, which is also where he operates best – on the ground and far away
from the cameras. Those who pretend to love him but are only concerned about
their political futures would of course want to drag him out of that ‘better
zone’ and into a campaign that is scripted to belittle the man.