THE WEEK THAT WAS
The
third reading of the Budget 2021 was passed in parliament with
amendments on Thursday with a majority of 97 votes. a short while ago,
151 voting in favor while 54 voted against it. It was in a sense a
reaffirming of the two-thirds majority that the ruling party, the Sri
Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), acquired to get the 20th Amendment
passed. It wasn’t unexpected.
The news of the week was however
dominated by issues related to Covid-19. First let’s consider the sober
part of things (numbers and measures) before we get to the circus
activities.
Two months have passed since the Covid-19 ‘Second
Wave’ started. A total of 3,482 cases were reported in the first wave
with 13 deaths and as of Thursday the 10th of December, we have 26,592
cases with 131 deaths in the second wave. The numbers keep growing. What
of the rates of infections identified against the numbers tested and
the overall fatality rate?
As of Thursday, 12,800 of the
30,075 infected overall have recovered. There are 8,131 active cases.
The death count stands at 144 (0.48% death rate, i.e. approximately one
fatality of every 200 infected).
The daily case load has shown a
spike over the past few days, but the major contribution has been from
what are not referred to as sub clusters and sub-sub clusters, in
particular the prisons, Atalugama and Akkaraipattu.
The
district-wise break down is as follows: Colombo at 12,832, Gampaha
7,244, Kalutara 1,506 and Kandy 918. The numbers continue to be high
due to the peculiar nature of some of the cluster, for example the
Welikada Prison in Colombo, Mahara Prison in Gampaha, Bogambara Prison
in Kandy and Atalugama in Kalutara. There’s no ‘Minuwangoda Cluster’ to
speak of. Brandix is ready to become fully operational.
Here’s
the breakdown of the ‘Sub-Sub-Clusters’ of the ‘Peliyagoda Fish Market
Cluster’: Prisons, Police and Garment Factories (558 cases),
Constructions Sites (472 cases), Atalugama (495 cases). Prisons and
Atalugama pose location-specific problems, isolation in the former being
impractical while it is being resisted in Atalugama!
‘Atalugama’
is a peculiar case. Villagers have had issues with the Police on
several occasions and there’s a clear aversion to testing. Many who were
tested positive absconded thereafter, refusing to be moved to treatment
facilities. The result is that 495 cases have been identified over the
past two weeks. Four have died.
According to information obtained
from various sources including the Epidemiology Unit, hospitals, Police
and security forces, infections continue to be reported from the
Colombo Municipal areas with rates declining in flats while slum areas
remain vulnerable due to congestion. The virus, which seemed to have
concentrated in Colombo North appears to be moving South, i.e. from
Modara, Mattakkuliya to Maligawatte, Maradana, Dematagoda and now
towards Narahenpita, Kirulapone and Wellawatte. Many areas in Colombo
North have now been under isolation for almost 50 days.
Testing
has focused on vulnerable groups and communities with 643,550 tests
conducted since the advent of the second wave, at an average of 13,000
per day. The tests to positive identification ratio has remained stable
around 4%.
Globally, the big news was a vaccine that’s
currently being administered in the UK. Allergic reactions have been
reported, but it is still too early to pass judgment on efficacy. It is
not clear when the vaccines (there’s more than one) will be available
here. We don’t know if it is affordable either.
Locally, the
‘cure news’ was the announcement by ayurvedic practitioner Dhammika
Bandara that he had discovered a concoction that can combat Covid-19. It
has been pointed out that trials that satisfy accepted testing
protocols had not been conducted. However, an endorsement by the
Minister of Health probably contributed to crowds converging on Kegalle
to buy the ‘peniya’ (syrup). Basic protection guidelines were flouted.
Relevant authorities either turned a blind eye or lacked the skill to
enforce safety measures.
The entire operation has since been brought to a halt.
Miracle
cures are not the preserve of ‘native practitioners’. The entire
pharmaceutical industry is all about profit, not about improving the
health of the sick. There are thousands of physicians who prescribe
branded drugs who are essentially agents of the industry.
There
are no real alternatives to being pro-active and responsible.
Protection protocols need to be strictly observed. There was a serious
lapse in this regard when it was claimed that a native remedy had been
discovered. People rushing to grab ‘the cure’ abandoned all caution. The
authorities didn’t move fast enough to bring things under control.
Anyone can claim he/she has found a cure. And if anyone believes this
(people believe a lot of crazy things, let us not forget) that’s their
business. People can rush to buy anything, magic formulas included. They
have to follow safety guidelines though!
To be fair, the syrup
that drew crowds to Kegalle was made of ingredients that have curative
properties. Still, the basic fact that needs to be understood is that
99.50% of the infected recover. Someone can say ‘gotukola kaenda is a
cure, it is guaranteed that if 200 people who are infected have a glass
every morning, 199 of them will recover fully in 14 days.’ He/she would
be proven correct. Replace ‘gotukola kaenda’ with ‘ice cream’ or ‘a
fizzy drink’ or ‘meditating on impermanence’ or ‘holding a rosary and
praying’ and you’ll get the same result.
And while you remind
yourself that it’s best to wear masks (following guidelines), wash
hands, keep social distance, etc., if you are infected and end up in a
medical facility, the ‘treatment’ you receive is most likely to be
steaming (dun aelleema) and koththamalli (coriander) with inguru
(ginger)!
So let’s not go overboard with ‘science’ and ‘cures’
(miracle or otherwise). The simple fact that everyone seems to have
missed is that 99.50% of the infected recover. The only way to find out
in a statistically significant manner that any ‘cure’ works is to test
it on a large number of infected persons. If, for example, 10,000
infected persons are given the particular medicine and say less than 25
die, then it means that the recovery rate is bettered by it.
Now
if someone said king coconut can defeat Covid-19, 1000 infected persons
take it in the prescribed dosage and 3-5 of them die, it can be claimed
that there’s a high recovery rate, but it what’s been proven is that
the recovery rate without treatment has not been bettered. Someone else
can say ‘try coca cola’ or goto-kola kaenda!
Here’s a fact that
one could note: those tested positive and have been moved to various
treatment facilities, apart from being treated for fever, cough and so
on with medicines usually prescribed for such ailments, are given
coriander and subjected to ‘steaming.’
Also, those who
pooh-pooh anything and everything ‘native’ say nothing about
faith-healing, holy water and other kinds of stuff which, if it was
practiced by Sinhalese or Buddhists, they quickly dub ‘mumbo-jumbo.’
There’s politics in selectivity.
That said, it was
absolutely irresponsible of the health authorities to create hype over
this ‘miracle cure’ whose miraculous properties remain untested. It was
irresponsible of the state media to sensationalize it. It was
irresponsible of the vedamahattaya to offer the medicine without
ensuring that the would-be consumers would observe safety guidelines. It
was irresponsible of the purchasers to disregard the same. It was
irresponsible of the authorities mandate to enforce these guidelines to
let things go out of control. Let’s hope that a ‘syrup-cluster’ will not
result!
Primary Health Care, Epidemics and Covid-19 Disease
Control State Minister Dr. Sudarshini Fernandopulle offering a sober
voice urged the public not to panic and requested them not to queue up
seeking the concoction, until research is concluded. She stated that
the Health Ministry was currently in the process of carrying out
scientific research on the indigenous medicine.
In the end, and in the long run, logic should prevail over emotion. Perhaps the way to alleviate Muslim anxieties is to permit burial but in a manner that has not even the slightest chance of causing anxiety to other communities. The Prime Minister has talked of finding places appropriate for burial, for example.
On the other hand, there’s palpable unease in the Catholic community, the main target of the Easter Sunday attacks by Islamic extremists. It goes like this:
‘Muslims believe that if they are cremated they cannot go to heaven. If burial of Covid patients is permitted, then this matter is sorted out as far as they are concerned. What is to stop infected extremists of roaming around Christian communities? They would be fulfilling, in their minds, the will of Allah!’
malindasenevi@gmail.com
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