A reading of the ‘Colombo Result’

The leader of the United National Party (UNP) Wickremesinghe has a special message to electors on the eve of the local government elections:  "vote for the UNP and give a message to the government that we want a good life and that we are no longer agreeable that our democratic rights are taken away."  Well the results are out and it is time to assess the response to this call. 

The UNP was the Colombo Municipal Council or rather retained this important local government body it had secured through a proxy in 2006.  The UNP lost everything else, including its traditional strongholds.  There was a sense though, in the run up, that the UNP would be happy to win Colombo, even if it lost elsewhere and as such there is reason for that party to be euphoric.  The call was ‘let’s begin with Colombo’. 

In 2006, despite the handicap of having to use a proxy independent group (the ‘spectacle case’ as it were), the electorate returned 23 members having cast 82,500 votes (40.24%) for the party.  The United People’s Freedom Alliance got (UPFA) 57,158 (27.85%) and 14 seats. This time the UNP got 101,920 (43.01%) and 24 seats, while the UPFA got 77,089 (32.53%) and 16 seats.  The absolute numbers have gone up (for the UNP) but the percentage increase has been small. The UPFA has done slightly better in this regard, but this improvement cannot be cheered, considering the unprecedented improvements in the city orchestrated by the Government. ‘Abuse of state resources’ has been a constant and its impact appears to be insignificant when number-change is considered.  

In 2002, with the natural advantage of incumbency, the UNP secured 32 seats, garnering 136,845 (57.83%), while the UPFA got just 8 seats (38,002 votes or 16.06%). 

In 2011 (like in 2006), the UPFA enjoyed incumbency-edge, indicating clearly that Colombo remains a UNP bastion (and as overall results indicate, the only one remaining).  What is important to note, however, is that retaining a bastion does not indicate a significant change of fortunes (for the UNP), and moreover that the overall result, even after factoring in incumbency-edge (for the UPFA) has shown a marked decline in popularity.  

One must also keep in mind that this is the second local government elections held under the stewardship of Mahinda Rajapaksa. ‘Regime-fatigue’ does not seem to have been a factor.  Even if one were to adjust for ‘abuse of state resources’ and the obvious advantages of abusing the option for holding elections on a staggered basis, the gap is still very significantly in favour of the ruling party.  Thus, with reference to the UNP leader’s call, it would seem that the electorate is happy with things as they are or at least are not too disagreeable about them.  The other possibility is that they’ve just not heard Wickremesinghe or, if they did, they don’t have any compulsion to side with him even if they were not necessarily happy with the UPFA. 

The UNP, then, needs to sober up about the results, even though it is good to have something in the pocket, or at least have the satisfaction that this last devalued coin has not slipped out of a hole the leadership itself has created.

The JVP should be even more worried.  In 2006, the JVP polled 6,145 in Colombo, securing 2 seats.  In 2011, that party has slipped across the country (bested by even the LSSP in one case), and has got just 3,162 for a dismal 7^th place finish. As for the most vociferous advocates of devolution, the NSSP, they’ve barely bade it into double digits wherever they contested. 

What is the overall result?  The local government elections indicate that even if one were to ‘correct’ for inherent advantages enjoyed by the ruling party, the country still stands with the President, for better or worse, even if the President and the UPFA happened to be the consolation option for the majority.  The Colombo result does not indicate any kind of ‘resurgence’ of the UNP. It’s just same-old, same-old. 

More importantly, the ‘Colombo Result’ may tell us why the ‘Sri Lanka Story’ abroad is so slanted.  The story-tellers live for the most part in Colombo. They hobnob with the upper classes, typically diehard UNP loyalist who are conversant in English and for this reason alone (by default, as it were) are talked to/with by the story-tellers, i.e. diplomats, UN employees, INGO workers.  It would be silly to expect such people to offer analyses/opinions of those who disagree with them.  So they talk their talk, lay their versions thick on the table and it is all lapped up by a well-meaning (perhaps) but possibly naïve and ill-informed set of foreigners.  What happens next?  I don’t think elaboration is required.

The ‘Colombo Result’ is then an invitation for the well-meaning, open-minded would-be story-tellers to take a walk out of the municipal limits of Colombo.  They should not let their conversations and would-be respondents be screened by their pro-UNP friends in the cocktail circuit. The biggest mistake would be to think that those who know and can speak well in English are necessarily smart or smarter than those who don’t.  It’s just a language.  People are not stupid.  They weigh costs and benefits.  They are not naïve.  They are not blind.  They are not dumb.  Take the cross section, if you want to form an informed opinion about how this country thinks and acts.  That’s my advice for the story-tellers. 

As for the ruling party, it should take the results and try to figure out the impact of incumbency as well as abuse of state resources.  My guess is that they would still have won by a comfortable margin.  The question then is ‘why abuse?’  Insecurity, perhaps?  That’s a ‘chink’ and there should be no illusions about it.  People notice these things.  Friends as well as enemies. 

[Courtesy, Daily News, October 11, 2011] 

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When Milinda opened a box and found himself

Years ago, during the time when a lot of people in Colombo were going ga-ga about the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA), I wrote (in both the Sunday Island and the Irida Divaina) very critical articles about negotiations/talks between the Ranil Wickremesinghe government and the LTTE.  Naturally, G.L. Peiris and Milinda Moragoda (now with the present government), both key players in Wickremesinghe’s government and in the so-called ‘peace process’ were mentioned and not in complimentary ways either. 

At some point, Milinda invited myself, Rajpal Abeynayake (now Editor, Sunday Lakbima News) and Bandula Jayasekera (Director General, Presidential Media) for a chit-chat.  All smiles.

‘So you think I am a kattaya?’ he asked.  I replied in the affirmative and explained why I thought he was a shrewd operator.  He kept smiling.  Not one of those have-to-show-equanimity kinds of grins, but a good spirited response.  We had our say. He had his.  All cordial. 

The next time I saw him was at an exhibition.  It was called ‘The Other Side’ and was held at Barefoot.  It showcased the non-advertising creative work of people at Phoenix-Ogilvy and was not limited to those in the Creative Department.  There were paintings, photographs and sculptures.  There was installation art.  I can’t remember all the exhibits now, but I remember one item that made me laugh. 

Harith Gunawardena (now at Grants), who wrote the extremely popular ‘King Barnette’ column in the Irida Divaina, had a box with a label: ‘Norway raajyayen milinda moragodata thaeggak’ (A gift to Milinda Moragoda from the Norwegian Government’.  There was an invitation to open the box and take a look inside.  It contained some ropes, all of them old and frayed. ‘Dead ropes’ or as we say in Sinhala ‘dirachcha (decayed) lanu’. 

This was when Norway played a ‘facilitating’ role between the Government and the LTTE.  To me, it was amazing copy.  It was a neat and powerful political statement.  It didn’t take long thereafter for everyone, including the most ardent (if naïve) supporters of the CFA to realize that the CFA was a road to nowhere, that it was a flawed, in word and in operation and most importantly that the LTTE (as we who had been vilified as ‘war mongers’ argued) was never interested in negotiations.  The exhibit, therefore, also had prophetic value. 

Milinda, at the time and as pointed above, was a key player.  Harith knew that Milinda would come.  It was therefore an in-your-face objection.  He came. He saw.  He was amused.  He offered to buy the exhibit. 

I can think of countless politicians who would have been livid, and many who might have kicked the box or worse, assaulted the box-maker.  I can think of one politician who might have wanted to strangle Harith with the rope, frayed though it was.    Milinda, on the other hand, was amused.  That’s rare, I still think. 

Politicians are kapati people.  It is a goes-without-saying thing.  I still think Milinda Moragoda is an accomplished strategist.  He plans. He calculates.  He does his thing.  Like any other politician.  He is not one to hold a grudge, that much I figured. Doesn’t mean he agrees of course.  It is easy to agree to disagree, easy to criticize and even in the most brutal way.  He doesn’t seem to mind. That’s a first step to taking criticism seriously.  That’s something.  Something rare, in fact. 

Harith was Harith.  Milinda was Milinda.  Milinda changed his political position and Harith can claim victory.  Milinda was Milinda and that made Harith re-assess the man.  I had forgotten exhibition, exhibit and incident. Milinda may have too. Harith had not.  It was a simple political exchange but one with profound outcomes that were not as apparent then as they are now.  It took a sharp critic and a crafty but nevertheless humble recipient of criticism to get both to where they are now, politically and in terms of how they view one another.  That’s something. Something rare, in fact. 

[Courtesy, Daily News, October 7, 2011] 

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So will you vote for a polluter?

Mohanlal Grero, it is reported, was upset about the impending elections for the Dehiwala-Galkissa Municipal Council.  He wanted the United National Party to keep the issue of who would be mayor open in the event of the party emerging victorious.  In other words, he was opposed to the idea of a ‘Mayor/Mayoress Designate’.   He had threatened to quit as Party Organizer if his demands were not met.  Now he says that four out of five demands have been met and the quit-threat would not be revisited until after the election was over.



Richard Pathirana and Amarasiri Dodangoda are no more, but the polluting culture they like thousands of others helped perpetuate lives on



Notably, the party leadership had not backed down on the key contention, merely assuring the aggrieved Ratmalana Organizer of the party that the Mayor Designate, if elected, would not harm the interests of the Ratmalana voters.   It is reported that this ‘successful’ conclusion of discussions was met with wild cheering and firecrackers. 

Meanwhile, most of the good ladies and gentlemen of all parties contesting the election, have demonstrated their commitment to the city whose operations they hope to oversee.  They’ve plastered the walls of private and public properties with posters.  The electorate wakes to a set of faces and a few hours later gets to see another bunch of mug shots.  Come evening, these are duly replaced by yet another bunch of Good Samaritans who believe the citizens owe them something. 

This is not new.  Elections are made of posters.  Thousands upon thousands of trees have to be cut to make the paper that is used for posters.  Some of the candidates even have the gumption to promise the voter a clean environment in the event they get elected.  Not just in Dehiwala-Galkissa, of course. 

These are local government elections.  The key word is ‘local’.  Only those who are resident in the relevant geography can contest.  If a resident needs a poster to tell his neighbours that he/she is contesting, then he/she must have been pretty much absent from the community and therefore cannot claim to know what the issues are or have solutions for the problems requiring immediate attention.  If a candidate must necessarily indulge in pollution to win some votes so that he/she can arrest pollution (for example), then that candidate is not deserving of your vote.  Also, if that candidate wins, then the voters should not complain if they find that their waste disposal problem remains unaddressed, if their children die of Dengue and other diseases that pollution and squalor help spread. 

The Colombo Municipal area has been spared all that.  So far.  Perhaps this is because the ongoing city beautification process has made people see that a clean city is not as Utopian as was thought to be and politicians, consequently, don’t want to rub the voter the wrong way with posters, cut-outs and other campaign paraphernalia.  They don’t want, perhaps, to be identified as eye-sore producers and promoters.

If this is possible in Colombo, then it is not impossible elsewhere.  It is easy to blame the candidates, but we must understand that there is a demand-supply principle in operation in the matter of electioneering.  Champika Ranawaka and Udaya Gammanpila ran effective poster-free campaigns at the General Election and Provincial Council Election respectively and were among those who polled the most preferential votes.  They were exceptions, however.    Duminda Silva won handsomely in Colombo at the General Election, even though it seemed he would not spare a single wall or lamppost.  Wimal Weerawansa was as poster-fixated.  They finished on top.  Those who finished first in all districts were similarly poster inclined.  Polluters all, yes, but we must not forget that they were rewarded nevertheless. 

It would be nice if residents came out and said, ‘poster boys and girls will not get my vote’, but people are risk-averse (as they ought to be!).   You don’t have to shout about it though.  There’s generally one or two people who either out of choice or circumstances (lack of campaign cash, for example) leave walls alone.  Every party has a few I-shall-not-pollute candidates.   If the party of choice has no one like that then it is probably time to question the worth of supporting that particular party.  It is far better to spoil your vote or at least stay at home on election day. 

As for Mohanlal Grero and the UNP, they seem to have missed the bus. It’s not about whether Sunethra Ranasinghe is good or bad.  Well, I suppose it’s important for them.  There are more pressing issues and they are all pasted on the walls.  Strange they didn’t have the eyes to see.

[Courtesy, Daily News, September 1, 2011]

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