Ranil Wickremesinghe's trumps

Old friends need each other

The joke was that Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe, regardless of stated political differences, were totally dependent on each other. In Mahinda’s case Ranil was the perfect Opposition Leader and he would have loved nothing better than having to go head-to-head with the man. The fact that Ranil shied away from such a confrontation on two occasion, gives credence to this view.

Ranil needed Mahinda. The out-of-the-blue road work outside Sirikotha when Ranil was harangued by party detractors was just one of several moves made by the aiya to help the malli. All that’s in the past, after the January 2015 results, one might think. Is it true though?

Right now Ranil Wickremesinghe is acting as though he’s the all powerful executive Prime Minister. Many of his backers and party loyalists believe that President Maithripala Sirisena is a 21st version of William Gopallawa. Some even think that Sirisena is madly in love with Ranil. That’s a view held by myopic UNPers as well as incredulous SLFPers who must wonder which party the President really backs.

The truth is that things are not that rosy for either Ranil or the UNP. Right now, the power struggle within the SLFP or rather the attempts of the pro-Mahinda group to gain lost ground serves the UNP’s interests. If there’s a split of any kind, naturally the UNP stands to gain. A resolution in whatever direction would be less savory, consequently. In any case, dissolution of Parliament in the context of an unresolved internal conflict in the SLFP would be ideal for the UNP. The call for dissolution therefore is logical. The logic of the call however is dubious.

Maithripala Sirisena came to power promising sweeping reforms in the institutional arrangement. Electoral reform is a critical part of the reform package pledged to the voters. Citing the end of the ‘100 Days’ as reason for dissolution is poor form from the UNP, especially since it is the UNP that has constituted the biggest drag to the reform process. The UNP, as of now, had orchestrated a virtual standstill in Parliament. The UNP is playing spoiler, that much is clear. They demonstrated this amply by the antics over the 19th Amendment and the scandalous foot dragging over the 20th.

The UNP, moreover, is in deep trouble over the Central Bank bond issue. If the COPE report on the subject implicates big wigs in the party, it might snowball into the President sacking the Government. Yes, he does not have to dissolve until April 2016. If that were to happen, if and when elections are called, whether or not the 20th Amendment is passed and whether or not a passed 20th will result in elections being held under a new system, and whether or not the Mahinda-factor dents the SLFP, the UNP will not have things as easy as it would if say parliament is dissolved tomorrow.

Ranil needs Maithripala right now. He needs Maithripala more than Maithripala needs him. Since Ranil has not delivered on key promises and since his ministers have compromised national security, made a mockery of objections of wastage and are now implicated in massive fraud, Maithripala can say ‘All bets off, brother’. Indeed, sacking Ranil might give him just the little leverage he needs to mitigate the Mahinda-factor within the SLFP.

‘Maithripala’ is therefore a dangerous card to bet everything on, as far as Ranil is concerned. The Mahinda-card might be a stronger trump to push Maithripala to dissolve. One thing is clear. President Maithripala Sirisena is no fool. However, he could earn that tag should he opt to be Serf Maithri to Lord Ranil.

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Mahinda and Maithripala compare headaches

Everyone talks about the candidates.  The candidates themselves talk about each other.  In a parallel universe they actually talk WITH each other.  And so we ‘heard’ Mahinda Rajapaksa comparing notes with Maithripala Sirisena.  It was almost as though each was discussing an election that the other was contesting.

‘How are things going, Maithri?’ Mahinda opened with a question.

‘You know how it is, Janadhipathithumani…’ Maithri began but was cut short.

‘Call me Mahinda, otherwise I will have to call you “Apekshakathuma,” and that would be funny all things considered,’ Mahinda explained.

‘Didn’t Chandrika Methiniya call you “Apekshakathuma” way back in 2005?’ Maithri asked but Mahinda, true to form, dodged.

‘Let me tell you something.  Even if she called you “apekshakathuma,” she won’t mean it that way.  In her head she would probably be thinking, “gon naamba”.   I am pretty sure that’s how she saw me.  I saw her seeing me and I suggest that you do too.’

‘And what of Ranil?’

‘A good man.  You need him.  He has ambitious, but don’t we all?  But he’s a pragmatist.  He knows what’s possible and what’s not.  He can help you.  In fact I think his help is vital.  As long as he thinks that at the end of the day he can trick you into transferring the people’s mandate to him, he will back you 100%.  If not, he will still support you, but will hold back.’ 

‘I see.  So how are things going at your end?’

‘Good.  I am the incumbent, don’t forget.  And as long as Chandrika looks like the one holding the strings, all I have to do is compare her track record with mine.’ 

‘But what if we drop her?’

‘That would be a blow, to tell you the truth.  But you see Maithri, this is about one candidate, not a party or a cabinet of ministers.  People may hate some of my ministers, they might be upset that I didn’t get rid of thugs and thieves, but they still see me a strong leader, the person who brought peace, the president who made sure that young people won’t join the army only to die or come home without limbs or eyes.  All I have to do is smile.’

‘That’s true.  So you are confident?’

‘Maithri, even if I was not, I will not show it.  The thing about being a presidential candidate is that you have to act like you are in control, even if you are not.’

‘It’s not easy,’ Maithri confessed.

‘Yes, I know.  It was the same for me in 2005.  Everyone wants to use you.  Everyone thinks that you can be made a pawn.  And then the egos!’

‘Oh yes!  They think that I would be nothing if not for them.  All of them think that.  How did you manage to handle things in 2005?’

‘I played along.  People with big egos are vain.  Vanity is an easy vice to prey on.  Let them think whatever they want to think.  Just remember that in this game there is only one winner.’

‘You mean like how we tell people that they are kings and queens until the polls close and after that they have to come crawling to us?’  Maithri was a quick learner and it showed.

‘Exactly!’

‘So, any predictions?’

‘Maithri, I will win.  But don’t worry.  After I win, I will make a long speech about you.  See, you are not Sarath Fonseka.  I will take care of you.  After all, we are old friends.  And we are both SLFPers.’

‘That’s nice to know.  I am also convinced I will win.  But don’t worry.  I will also make a long speech and tell the nation that you, of all people, is deserving of the people’s gratitude.  I might even add that you did things no one thought possible and which your predecessors didn’t have the guts to do.’

‘You might annoy Chandrika!’  Mahinda guffawed.

‘I won’t say it now.  This is in my acceptance speech!’  Maithri winked. 

And they embraced.     

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Playgrounds and Players in Asia

President Mahinda Rajapaksa, addressing the first Asia Cooperation Dialogue Summit in Kuwait, outlined his vision for the region in the following terms:

‘This continent of Asia cannot be the playground of other forces, who seek our wealth, our assets of nature and human resources. Our progress must draw from the best of our own cultures and while learning from the best of others who come with genuine friendship. We are seeing the dawn of the Age of Asia. We must together see it bring new light to a troubled world dominated by the grave errors of other continents.’

Asia has been playground for many, across the centuries. The British, French, the Danes, Portuguese and Americans of the United States have put their dirty paws all over Asia, massacred thousands of people, ravaged cultures and communities and plundered resources.  The ‘West’ is rich and it’s no secret where the wealth came from.  It was not Asia, true, but the Plunder of Asia did not end with ‘independencies’ or troop withdrawal.  Plunder was replaced by Smart-Plunder.  If memory fails, then think ‘Afghanistan’. 

So the President is correct.   Asia should not be anyone’s playground, or dumping ground for that matter.

Even as the Long American Century (to use a term coined by Giovanni Arrighi almost twenty years ago to ‘periodize’ the play and control of power and money) draws to a close the USA’s more than finger-poking presence all over the globe is too in-one’s-face to ignore or pooh-pooh away.  There are fairly naked guns-in-booty-out examples (Afghanistan, Iraq and the elegantly executed ‘Arab Spring’) and there are UN resolutions, arm-twisting in international forums, aid-for-policy buy-outs, open and surreptitious bribing of officials and politicians.  Getting dirty fingers out of regional-pie is thus easier said than done.

There’s another part to this ‘playground’ business though.  There is an implicit notion that it’s an outsider that is messing things up.  True, history has shown that when we draw deep from history, heritage and culture, the outcomes tend to be more benign than when we uncritically purchase foreign blueprint, but even in some happy in-between of such choices we need to keep in mind that territories are not and never were islands.  There is engagement and therefore terms of engagement.  Resources and manpower alone won’t ensure a good bargain.  It’s about what we buy and what we sell, what we need and don’t, and the wisdom to make correct choices.

There’s a third part to this story.  Locals also play.  There are playgrounds and playgrounds, players and players, winners and losers. Not all of them are ‘foreign’.  For centuries the poor and dispossessed have been played. For centuries their access to resources has been tampered with.  They’ve been robbed outright and by law and lawsuit, threat and execution of threat, promise and contract breach.  There are structures that enable this kind of playing which, although may have been constructed by invader for invader-purpose but which survive invader-quit simply because they are convenient appendages for resource extraction and labor exploitation by people who look local, act locally but do what foreigner did (and does).   

Regional solidarity is good.  If we had, for example, a SAARC Security Force, the problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan may have been resolved a long time ago.  It is good for Asia to come together. No, Asia will not win the Nobel Prize, but that piece of humbuggery won’t matter.  However, at the end of the day, thumbing a collective nose at the West and having European leaders eat humble pie won’t mean much if Asians starve in their millions. 

President Rajapaksa has opened a debate.  That’s good.  It’s not the end of the story.  That’s good too.  For what we have is a double-whammy: playgrounded by the invader and playgrounded by people who look like us, our fellow citizens, our fellow Asians.  That’s not good.

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