If it is about who will be the principal presidential
candidate of the Opposition then it boils down to who wins Ranil
Wickremesinghe’s endorsement, in the event that he chooses not to contest of
course. This is because the United
National Party is the main Opposition party and the one that can secure support
from important sections of the rest of the Opposition. This is also because of the UNP’s
constitution and, more important, Ranil Wickremesinghe’s proven shrewdness in
holding on to party reins.
There will be, as there already is, pressure from various
sources. He will be asked to step aside
for a more credible candidate to take on President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Some might even entertain thoughts of a coup
to oust him before candidacy is formally declared. It won’t work. He has to decide whether or not he would
contest and in the event he steps aside he has the biggest say in naming a
‘common candidate’.
Very few, including the big names in the UNP, seriously
think Ranil Wickremesinghe can win.
People do check out track-records.
People remember. They remember more
clearly what’s more recent, sure, but there are things associated with
Wickremesinghe that are not forgotten.
The archives will no doubt be visited and relevant material unearthed
and touched up. At best it would be a
very tough ask unless he is helped by a ‘spoiler candidate’ capable of making
dents in Mahinda Rajapaksa’s vote bank.
An easier ‘ask’ would be a ‘common opposition candidate,’
but then again it would be hard to come out with a name with appeal greater
than that which Sarath Fonseka had. Even
if one were to account for abuse of state resources and other election
malpractices, the margin is still considerable.
Regime-fatigue, regime-ills and such might not bridge it for a lesser
name. Anyway, it’s less about party than
about personality. Mahinda Rajapaksa,
simply, is still seen as ‘leader’ over and above the fact that he is considered
a one-of-us kind of guy by large swathes of the voting population. A non-UNP ‘common candidate’ will suffer
from the lack of enthusiasm from the rank and file of parties supporting
him/her that was widely seen in 2010.
It has to be someone from the UNP. There are only two names to be considered.
Karu Jayasuriya and Sajith Premadasa.
Dayan Jayatilleka (The Karu candidacy project: is it a viable option?) says
he is the ideal candidate but says ‘that’s just his potential’. Leaving a window of opportunity slightly open
for Karu (‘It isn’t his reality; certainly not yet—and there are only a few
short weeks to go for crunch time’), Dayan opens a bigger window. For Sajith.
He says Karu has mismanaged the equation with Sajith. Some would argue that if anyone is guilty of
mismanagement it is Sajith. Sajith
wanted Ranil to resign in favor of Karu and snubbed Karu at every turn
including most recently in Uva. He
wanted to oust Ranil but now backs him; backed Karu and now wants him hoofed
out. That’s amazing ‘equation-management’
especially if Karu is all that Dayan claims him to be (‘Potentially the ideal
candidate’).
Then he makes some grand claims about Sajith: ‘Sajith is not
only the only UNPer who can galvanize the grassroots, he is the only frontline
UNPer with resonance among the vast majority of voters who are
rural/provincial’. He paints Karu as
someone who has appeal only among ‘the goigama
Sinhala Buddhist elite and its urban and suburban strata’. Sajith, on the other hand, he claims, ‘can
carry the larger swathe of Sinhala Buddhists under the poverty line’ and adds
‘like his father did’. He also says,
quite correctly, that Karu’s signature political project of abolishing the
executive presidency has no mass appeal, but then again it’s not difficult to
downplay this. He does this and there’s
no more an ‘Achilles heel’ in his candidacy.
Sajith, it must be remembered, has no project apart from ‘I, Me and
Myself’.
The under-painting of Karu directly contradicts Dayan’s
earlier ideal-candidate (potentially) claim.
More seriously, Dayan just doesn’t substantiate the claims he makes
about Sajith. Sajith’s Sinhala-Buddhist
credentials are weak. ‘Hambantota’ (over
14 years) does not translate into ‘Sri Lanka’.
He has been a divisive factor more than a unifying one in the UNP, even
getting anti-Ranil pals to badmouth the party and the leader at his own
rallies. He’s gone on record to say that
if he is made candidate he must have the leader’s post as well. Yes, he’s all about ‘I, Me and Myself’.
How big is Sajith anyway?
He has admittedly a great cheering squad. He is also the beneficiary of much inflation by a television station whose owner has time and again proven that he
has absolutely no clue about political winds, backing the wrong horse imagining
it had the legs to win. For the voter-segment that Dayan believes would pick
Sajith over the President that station is a joke.
Whatever that Sajith might hold back in the event of a Karu
candidacy, is going to diminish into a non-factor as campaigns gather
steam. What he ‘takes out’ could be
compensated for by the JVP and JHU, both more comfortably with Karu than with
Sajith.
Finally, the presidential election will be about what
political forces the candidates can mobilize.
Sajith is a demoralizer. Karu
accommodates. That could be key in an
election already skewed in favor of the incumbent for reasons that are larger
than incumbency in the context of the existing constitution. A good effort that falls short of a win would
help democracy; a weak showing as is likely with a Ranil or Sajith candidacy
would not only platter-giving to Mahinda Rajapaksa but would bleed into a poor showing in a
General Election thereafter.
All this, IF RANIL STEPS ASIDE, it should not be
forgotten.
The inflation of Sajith Premadasa
Options for the Opposition
Sajith Premadasa's move(s)
The vilification of Karu Jayasuriya
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